Can Daniel Negreanu Make a Million-Dollar Comeback Against Doug Polk?

The Heads-Up Feud between Daniel Negreanu and Doug Polk was always heralded as an uneven fight at the felt.

While the first 200 hands took place live at the PokerGO studios in Las Vegas, the next 24,800 hands would be played exclusively on WSOP.com, giving a huge advantage to Doug Polk. With his history of elite online heads-up play, Polk was a massive challenge to Daniel Negreanu.

He currently looks like an impossible mountain to climb.

The Canadian player Negreanu, with $42 million in live tournament winnings alone and who sits third on the all-time money list behind only Justin Bonomo ($49m) and Bryn Kenney ($56m) may be the boss when it comes to live poker, but online heads-up poker is Doug Polk’s speciality. He’s one of the best in the world at the format of one-on-one poker and has already proved it in the challenge so far.

An Early Lead for Negreanu is Wiped Out

Being six figures down to Negreanu from that earliest of stages didn’t worry Polk at all, in fact he could be seen to be faintly amused at the post-match interview stage of proceedings on PokerGO. He knew that the advantage was about to switch to him for the remaining 99% of the challenge.

With the casino game online now, and moving in-house (literally), the security measures taken by both men were super-tight. Both Polk and Negreanu had surveillance cameras installed to prove to the other man that no form of ‘ghosting’ (communications with another pro to assist with their play) was going on.

With the computers also under the digital microscope, neither man was allowed to crunch the numbers to the maximum degree by inputting data into online solvers. Both players were allowed to look at hand histories and make notes, however, and Polk made use of his vast experience in the format. Back he came, winning multiple sessions to reverse the deficit and to take a deserved lead.

Polk Goes on a Heater

Doug Polk stated before the challenge that he was looking to back up the truck and take out the trash, taking Negreanu for as much as he possibly could. As a kind run of cards saw him win all the big all-ins that counted in those early session wins across the first dozen showdowns online, and with 20% of the challenge in the can, Polk was leading by more than $400,000.

All the early talk from Negreanu had been about facing the challenge head-on and battling against a favourite everybody expected to beat him. In reality, perhaps the early lead Kid Poker took and the dramatic shift in those betting on the outcome didn’t help him.

Before the contest began, Negreanu was an underdog, but some had him has just a 3/1 shot to end the challenge victorious. Polk then talked up his opponent’s chances in the pre-amble video on PokerGO ahead of the live action, with the favourite suggesting that 4/1 odds were perhaps too long.

He was surely joking, bolstering his own chances of winning lucrative side-bets such as Phil Hellmuth and Bill Perkins.

Polk went for Negreanu and when $400,000 ahead, hit some superb hands, but told those who were following his progress on Twitter that Negreanu had played better than he thought would happen. Despite this gracious modesty, the profit kept piling up for Polk and through 18 sessions, Polk was well past the $600,000 mark when Negreanu started discussing the match on Twitter in terms of his bad luck.

The Odds Shift and the Debt Deepens

Daniel Negreanu stated quite optimistically at the beginning of the challenge that he made a deposit of a million dollars on WSOP.com, that being the maximum he could put down.

As the half-way point of the challenge (12,500 hands) approaches, Negreanu has a huge decision to make. With his losses currently approaching the million-dollar mark, the option is there for either player (at this stage, surely only to be considered by Kid Poker) to pull out and quit.

This is an interesting point, because for Negreanu, the minimal loss might be to have a mini fightback and get out of Dodge with just a $600,000 bill. For Polk, however, he might hope that Negreanu either comes back even more or is incredibly unlucky, mistakenly thinking that he can pull back the deficit over the second half.

With the odds now around 1/15 for a Polk win, this is highly unlikely to happen, and should Negreanu take up the option of playing the match out in full, most would make Polk a big favourite to walk away with seven figures of profit from the heads-up ‘feud’.

What Will Happen After the Event?

Doug Polk has previously said that this was his last hurrah in poker, that his future lies elsewhere, presumably in making the YouTube videos he’s concentrated on since half-turning his back on poker, the kind of jokey current affairs videos that get clicks and are broad-brush pieces designed to attract a bigger mainstream audience.

Polk has also asked Doyle Brunson for a match during this bout, however and his future may still lie in poker. With multiple WSOP bracelets, Polk is a big name in poker and may struggle to escape the industry he claims to want to leave.

If he beats Negreanu by a huge margin, more suitors will surely challenge Polk, leaving it very difficult for him to walk — or drive his truck — away.

Negreanu’s future is — considering he is way more likely to lose the fight — almost certainly going to carry on without any noticeable change. Sure, he’s likely to come out on the wrong side of a defeat for six figures but having recently become a GGPoker ambassador and making plenty of profit — and an increased profile — from the YouTube figures and notoriety that the challenge is bringing, Kid Poker will only become more and more the face of poker.

Defeat at the felt looks almost certain to be Negreanu’s, but in this bitter battle between two of poker’s most popular players, who ends up the biggest winner is still very much open to debate.